A clean curve can still carry weak evidence.
These field notes explain the pressure tests behind a credible strategy record, what each one can expose, and the conclusion it still cannot support.
Start with the weakness you need to rule out.
Each guide is deliberately narrow. No test becomes a verdict, and no passing result becomes a forecast.
Backtest overfitting
Did the strategy discover a recurring relationship, or memorize one convenient history?
Execution assumptions
Does the result survive fills that are less convenient than the model assumed?
Outcome concentration
How much of the submitted result depends on its few largest winners?
Monte Carlo trade resampling
Did the observed trade sequence hide paths that would have been much harder to survive?
Regime testing
Does the observed behavior recur, or belong mostly to one period?
Walk-forward vs. out-of-sample
Was the result produced by rules fixed before the evaluated data was observed?
Put the actual trade record under pressure.
The private workspace runs the evidence tests. The public demo shows every calculation, limitation, and unavailable result.